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25 October 2010  

Signed an agreement related to the Karabakh conflict

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October 3, 2010 in Tbilisi (Georgia), two prominent experts from the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, on the eve of the OSCE Summit Astana 02.01 in December 2010 signed an agreement related to the Karabakh conflict. We wish you continued success of our regional partners, and we appreciate this act as a good example for other opposite sides. You can read more here Only registered users can upload files.
8 February 2010  

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART II)

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART II)In his landmark work, The Legacy of Genghis Khan, Nykolai Trubetskoy dedicated a whole chapter to the South Caucasian nations. He wrote that Armenians are natural allies of Russia but, at the same time, they are widely disliked in the region and, therefore, forging ties too closely with Armenia could have negative consequences for Russia; that is, it will lead the latter to losing other possible allies in the region. Azerbaijan is important because of Caspian oil and Georgia is important because losing control over Tbilisi may lead to losing control over Baku as well. Georgians are dangerous because they have a strange drive towards the West. In order to undermine Georgia’s attempts to integrate into the West, Russia should encourage Abkhaz nationalism.
7 February 2010  

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART I)

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART I)The Kremlin has made itself believe that American foreign policy is only about promoting the geopolitical interests of the US and it has almost nothing to do with democratic and liberal values. This belief justifies the Kremlin’s behaviour that is not based on any values and principles and is oriented either upon gaining commercial profit or upon fulfilling the task of neutralising US influence in Eurasia. Russia would be willing and happy to strike a deal of partition with the US which would give Moscow influence over the former Soviet space but the reluctance of Washington to consider such a deal makes the Kremlin suspicious about American designs and possibly even suspect that Washington would welcome the dismemberment of Russia itself. This is what feeds Moscow’s anti-American endeavours. Russian foreign policy is not dramatically influenced by ideologies (such as Eurasianism). On the whole it is pragmatic although it suffers from the overestimation of the “American threat.”
14 December 2009  

The Russian proposal for a Euro-Atlantic Security Treaty

altWith the demise of the CFE Treaty and lack of replacement there is a political need for a redefinition of Euro-Atlantic security that provides for mutual self-interest as opposed to a "Cold War" confrontational view of security. This "Cold War" mentality still influences the thinking of many states in the Euro-Atlantic area (for understandable reasons). Therefore the Draft should be welcomed as a positive move and thoroughly analysed and discussed in the public domain. The Draft may well form a basis for the development of a workable and acceptable Treaty. Let us treat it as a consultative document in an adult manner...
20 November 2009  

Russia and Other Big Players in the South Caucasus

altAfter the collapse of the Soviet Union the South Caucasus has emerged as one of the most complicated regions not only reminding of the prominent role it played in the 19th century (when Great Powers like Russia and England fought for gaining a foothold here) but also offering itself as alternative energy route for the West. The importance of the South Caucasus is highlighted by its geography since it is bordered by the Black Sea (linking with the Straits - the crucial point of the Russian and Western interests) and the Caspian (rich with hydro carbonates). In parallel the region abounds with ethnic conflicts hampering both the development of the regional cooperation and the development of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia into effectively functioning nation states. All of the South Caucasian states have suffered from internal disorders and all of them had to align with some Great Power or regional player.

16 November 2009  

“Eastern Partnership” in the Context of Russian-European Relations (part 2)

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..Analyzing nature of EP purposes, the majority of the Russian experts consider that, those of them, which have been declared as official, are mainly carrying the declarative character. Thus, in documents on the EP there is a hint on possibility of joining of these countries to the EU in the long-term future (under condition of successful performance of the EP program). However, in practice Brussels is not going to keep this promise. By the way, European politicians and experts expressly or by implication admit this fact. So, Ruprecht Polents, chairman of Foreign Affairs Committee of Bundestag of Germany has directly declared that EP is not a replacement of membership of the specified countries in the EU or an alternative way to it. "Purpose "of Eastern Partnership "- to bring eastern neighbors close as it is possible to the European Union. We are not talking about the prospect of membership or about "substitution" of such prospect", - Polents has declared." After the big expansion of the EU in 2004, EU will not cope with joining of new members. Instead, we offer such countries, as Ukraine, programs, which in the future can facilitate discussion of a question on the EU membership. The question on prospect of membership can become topical in 5 - 10 years ", - he has also stated.
16 November 2009  

“Eastern Partnership” in the Context of Russian-European Relations (part 1)

altThe European Union - represents the important priority of foreign policy of Russia's strategy, and the relations between Moscow and Brussels are one of the most substantial components of the all-European system of safety. The recent initiative of the EU and of some of the Post-Soviet states on creation of the "Eastern Partnership" (EP) has raised many questions concerning its purposes, content and consequences in Moscow as for the Russia itself, as well as for its relations with the EU and the CIS countries.
20 August 2009  

The Future of Arms Control

altThe current state of arms control is precarious if not already moribund. Current practice is for everyone concerned to blame others, especially for the demise of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The old cold war mentality of block against block accusation and counter-accusation still dominates thinking, to the detriment of regional and global security. Many points of contention existing between states need to be resolved and some have behaved worse than others, but no single member state is responsible for the demise of the CFE Treaty. Arms control is being killed off by negligence, political short-sightedness or maybe even by deliberate and coordinated action... Unfortunately, because of its nature (NATO versus Warsaw Pact) it was based on a geopolitical state of affairs that had already ceased to exist before it came into force. It was right and proper to continue with implementation until the reduction phase had been completed and the benefits were tangible. The fundamental error made at the very beginning was to fail to take the new geopolitical reality into account and start working towards a completely new treaty, using all the experience gained, to meet the challenge. Instead a fudge was concocted - the Adapted CFE - that completely failed to address the challenge...
6 August 2009  

Peculiarities of Russian-Armenian Relations (part 2)

alt..against the backgournd of the new status-quo formation in the Big Caucasus - Moscow and Yerevan have to be more realistic in evaluation of motivation towards each other in order not to feel deep disappointment by the end. For example, they have to accept that Moscow shall never recognize independence of Karabakh as well as Armenia shall not make such decision in regards of the two Georgian separated regions. Kremlin shall not refuse cooperation with Baku, shall not make final choice between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but Yerevan also shall not refuse profitable relations with Western countries and Georgia (that makes 2/3 of foreign trade of Armenia), so, convergence of Yerevan and Tbilisi is based only on the pragmatic national interests... Georgia and Iran are "the two windows into the World" in conditions of the ground blockade from Turkey and Azerbaijan, since there is no ground border between the Russian Federation and Armenia...
3 August 2009  

Peculiarities of Russian-Armenian Relations (part 1)

altpart 1)Nowadays Russia and Iran are deemed to be the main allies of Armenia. In fact, this is an indubitable reality and in recent years there have been a lot of striking examples, however, in a certain, but not numerous circles, this reality is found not to be that undoubted that is based upon the historical background, where there were a lot of such information which contradicts to generally recognized myth of Russian and Armenian steadfast friendship.
Western-oriented Armenian experts, as a rule, blame Russia in this obscure situation and regard that metamorphosis of friendly feelings between the Armenian and Russian people depend on many circumstances, and they believe that the mainstream one is a geopolitical component...
Chosen Articles  
25 October 2010

Signed an agreement related to the Karabakh conflict

8 February 2010

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART II)

7 February 2010

INTERPRETING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION (PART I)

14 December 2009

The Russian proposal for a Euro-Atlantic Security Treaty

20 November 2009

Russia and Other Big Players in the South Caucasus

16 November 2009

“Eastern Partnership” in the Context of Russian-European Relations (part 2)

16 November 2009

“Eastern Partnership” in the Context of Russian-European Relations (part 1)

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